The Economic Impact of Deportation

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Deportation is the removal from the United States of a noncitizen, usually to the country of their origin. It is normally triggered by the immigration department when it decides that a noncitizen does not have permission to be here or that they violated the terms of their status. People can be removed for a number of reasons, including entering the country without permission or overstaying their visa, committing crimes, or posing a threat to national security.

Deported immigrants can also be re-admitted to the United States, though it is difficult and takes several years. However, their presence in the United States can have a negative impact on local economies and communities. Research suggests that a large scale deportation campaign would lead to significant economic disruptions, particularly in construction and agriculture industries, with associated declines in tax revenues and employment hours. This could potentially reduce production and raise consumer prices.

According to the nonprofit American Immigration Council, there are currently 13 million individuals in the United States without permanent legal status. Mass deportation would remove 1.5 million workers from the construction workforce, 224,700 from the agricultural industry and more than one million undocumented residents in the hospitality sector (such as hotels, restaurants and barber shops). Overall, experts estimate that removing these individuals from the economy could cause a drop in GDP of up to 12%.

The current system for deportation proceedings involves the government formally accusing a noncitizen of being removable, and then scheduling them to go before an immigration judge who considers the evidence and decides whether or not to order their removal. The process can be expedited or regular, depending on the circumstances of the case. The faster processes involve a less thorough review of the facts of the case, including the evidence that the person should be removed, and thus do not necessarily require a hearing.

Local law enforcement is a key component of the immigration deportation process. Under the federal program Secure Communities, all arrests made by local and state police are screened against immigration databases for deportable individuals. If the fingerprints of a noncitizen match and there is probable cause to believe that the individual is removable, then ICE issues a detainer asking the LEA to continue to hold that person for up to 48 hours after they otherwise would be released from custody in order to allow immigration officials time to pick them up. However, compliance with detainers is voluntary.

A deportation regime on a mass scale would force local law enforcement to conduct dramatically ramped up immigration enforcement operations. This would divert resources from policing communities, and from responding to natural disasters and other important national missions. It also may create tensions between local law enforcement and immigrant communities, which are already strained by a perception that the United States does not value them or their contributions. As a result, many undocumented individuals and some families with lawful status might seek to leave the United States in order to avoid being targeted for deportation.